ADA PRICE ANALYSIS

My previous analysis ended with me concluding that Ada was going to experience a correction in price - thus a big fat dump.

The price experienced a growth too big to be sustainable and natural - it was obvious that people were going to take profits out and see the price decline as a consequence of it!

And WOW - within 24 hours of releasing my article I had more than 100 emails with threats and insults on how bad and pessimistic my analysis was. People saying that the price was NEVER going to break a 1000 support.

And here we are - a week later with a 60% decrease in price!

I believe that this negative consolidation (green trend) was caused from the fact that Ada experienced a week as as the most hyped project worldwide - and the hype slowly died down.

One week ago my social feeds were FULL of news and questions about Cardano (Ada) and now the attention as already shifted elsewhere.

Consequently the NEW investor lost interest and sold its position - whilst the OLDER investor noticed that Ada stop increasing in price and sold the position which was entered 1 or 2 months ago for a great profit. Knowing that they would of been able to enter again at a lower price.

The 3 day price consolidation broke with 1 last pump to 1312 and from there hell unleashed - it dropped all the way down to 560 satoshi (58% decrease) over 3 days.

Braking all of its strong support levels at 900 and 700. This huge drop in my opinion was NOT caused from Ada’s bad performance or negative news - but it was caused from Bitcoin’s surge in price which typically comes with a drop in price of 99% of altcoins, as people are shifting their interest in money elsewhere.

What will happen?

On this prediction I will be bias - as I really want Ada’s price to touch the old resistance of 500 satoshi so that we can all accumulate more! I honestly think that it is possible - as there is way less attention and hype around the project and all eyes are on Bitcoin breaking records by the minute.

I see a quick touch to 500 bouncing to 700 and back to 1000ish till further updates - not higher as there is no reason to right now. I’m extremely happy the price corrected as we have a much healthier evaluation of the project.

What do I suggest doing?

Do you believe in Ada’s long term vision? Buy more at 500 otherwise 700 and hodl for a couple of years.

PUMP A

ADA had a first hint of an incoming pump when the volume and price suddenly increased of 12% from (500 to 600 satoshi).

The price had an (invisible) correction and then exploded PUMP A to almost 1000 satoshis hitting RESISTANCE B causing an increase of 72% within 5 hours.

Within the hour the price dumped 20% to 780 satoshi CORRECTION A - finally stabilizing at 880 RESISTANCE B (8% less than the all time high from the first pump).

PUMP B

As soon as the two correction lines crossed, the price experienced a huge increase in value PUMP B - jumping from RESISTANCE B to a new all time high of almost 1700 satoshi (90% in almost hours) correcting immediately to a strong support level of 1060 (37% decrease in 1 hour) SUPPORT B.

At this point the price never went close to the all time high and began swinging downwards between two support and resistance levels CORRECTION B. Until the 2 axis crossed causing the price to drastically drop.

The price dropped from 1400 to 850 satoshi (37% decrease in 6 hours) landing on SUPPORT D.

At this point it is all over social media that ADA will be listed on Binance - this information was never officially made public, suggesting that someone leaked information.

Consequently the price went through an accumulation phase for almost 22 hours with massive swings between RESISTANCE C and SUPPORT D - when Binance officially released a statement of ADA being introduced to their exchange the price spiked of 25% within 45 minutes.

Straight after the Binance’s news the price went through a consolidation phase. It experienced various little swings - until the roadmap was released causing the price to increase of 8% and decrease of 9% shortly afterwards.

In my opinion the project did amazingly with the roadmap as this time they were slightly less technical and easier for the average user to understand what is going on - and FINALLY paper wallets!

I have been following ADA’s price on a daily if not hourly basis since it’s launch.

This is obviously a substantial and almost unhealthy growth - that will definitely experience a big dump. As people will take profits out as soon as the hype dies and price will correct to a healthy level.

Hopefully I am wrong as I own a substantial amount of ADA relative to my portfolio - I guess that we will all know within the next couple of days!

Good job to whoever made great profits - and see you all next week

A weekly report was released stating that teams are currently discussing the use of ‘multi signing’ and working on API specifications for the integration with Ledger wallets.

This is great - as many users are not so happy with the overall user experience of the Deadalus wallet and would rather use their hardware wallet instead.

Additionally teams are currently researching ways to make the Deadalus wallet available for those users that use Linux - and finally stated that they are working on paper wallets.

Charles Hoskinson tweeted a preview of how those paper wallets will look

After which the price went through an accumulation phase. This was mainly fueled by fear and uncertainty of what was going to happen ahead - especially with SEGWIT2X less than 2 weeks away.

The more active/short term and scared investors were selling their positions, whilst long term buyers and believers in ADA’s vision were buying those dips - this caused two little pump and dumps from 330 to 280 and back to 300 satoshis (17% swings).

As the last dump was still happening - the SEGWIT2X cancellation statement by Mike Belshe was released and went viral.

As a consequence of this statement the the Bitcoin pump stopped and investors started to pour money back in altcoins - causing a massive pump in ADA’s price from 300 to 490 satoshis (62% increase) touching the previous resistance level

Obviously we are going to experience as correction as the exponential pump in price is not sustainable and people are going to take profits out.

If you are planning on buying ADA I suggest you wait for a couple of days as this crazy altcoin pump calms down - as the price will most probably settle soon.

Whilst if you bought at around 260 - 280 satoshis and are here to make a quick buck - now is a good time to get some of those profits out!

It mentioned that Cardano has 5 main core teams, which are lead and held responsible by IOHK - who is the team leader. Additionally there are 3 main parties who act as auditors - that have the purpose of a examining and evaluate the quality of the progress achieved by the group.

The roadmap highlighted that there are 3 core principles guiding the development of the road map, which are:

Growth of the community
A resilient network
Balance research and development - keeping scientific rigour a key factor

Additionally, the roadmap was divided in to ‘chapters’ and currently we are in “Byron” - whose main focus is to make improvements and adjustments to the core of ADA.

Specifically to focusing on the code, bugs and improvement to Daedalus’s wallet and making the API’s integration easier with 3rd parties.

“Shelby” will be the next chapter, whose main goal is to make the network fully decentralised - this will be achieved by improving the stability, interoperability and governance of the the software.

Finally, the budget was increased within two specific fields of research

Researching the issues that Ethereum is currently facing with smart contract, with the purpose of learning from it’s mistakes and implement a better solution in to ADA’s network!
Focusing on the philosophy of smart contracts and similar projects with the purposes of achieving something similar without the complexity and costs of Ethereum.

Many investors were expecting something “revolutionary” and to become rich overnight - but upon the release of the roadmap they realised that it would of taken a long time and thus sold their position.

In my opinion this is by far one of the best roadmaps that I have seen - as it’s entirely focused towards achieving ADA’s Long term vision of stability, decentralisation, security and ethicality of it’s network with the purpose of making the world a better place through the use of philosophy and technology.

Companies that rely on a single product or service focus entirely on marketing with the only intention of keeping both long and short term investors happy - I’m glad that ADA did not go down that path.

ADA had an accumulation phase prior to the release of the roadmap, which is typical before upcoming news and updates.

Throughout three days, just before the release of the roadmap the price experienced three pumps and dumps. Jumping twice from 448 to 490 and back to 448 satoshi’s (9% swings) and finally a weaker pump to 481 (7% increase) prior the roadmap.

Upon the release of the ‘not revolutionary’ roadmap ADA experienced a massive sell-off causing a dump from 481 to 264 satoshi’s (45% decrease) and jumping back to a new resistance of 340 sathoshi (30% increase).

I think that ADA’s price will experience big swings throughout the next couple of days and weeks. Mainly because community is still evaluating if they are willing to stay here for the long term - as it will take longer than expected before having a big return on their investment.

Additionally SEGWIT2X will impact the price of ADA - as any previous BTC fork had huge consequences on the price of altcoins.

What do I suggest?

It entirely depends on what you are trying to achieve. If you are investing in ADA for quick money, maybe it's better to sell and look for better options.

If you believe in ADA’s vision and have patience - buy more and take advantage of the price being so low and don’t check your balance for the next couple of years.

Ada’s is by far one of the most interesting and entertaining graphs to analyse!

Currently the market is crowded by both inexperienced traders that heard “ADA the new Ethereum” and bought it and sold because the price did not match Ethereum’s one within a couple of hours.

As well has more experienced traders who would go on any social platform and shout in capital letters “TO HOLD!!” and not sell off because the price is obviously not going to skyrocket overnight!

ADA will have a couple of interesting weeks and months ahead as it recently announced that it will be listed on more exchanges like: Mr Ripple, UpBit and Coinrail - as well as releasing its roadmap on November 1st!

Last week’s price analysis concluded with the price either breaking the trendline up or down (see Option A and Option B) - Social media alone was enough to understand what happened, as there was a mass celebration of ADA going to the moon.

However, the moment the fork occurred the market moved the profits made from BTC’s fork back to the Alt’s - taking advantage of low prices. As a consequence ADA has a massive, unsustainable and completely unnatural pump from 414 to 515 satoshi’s (24%)

Obviously this pump was not going to last a long time, pushing people to take profits out - causing a downtrend sell off from 515 to 452 satoshi’s (14%) as of today.

This downtrend managed a “new” support level identified from me and is currently about to touch the strong support level at 450 satoshi’s.

My Analysis suggests that it could either break the strong support level, and consequently continuing its downtrend - probably touching 414 satoshi’s which was a support for the sell off pre-fork.

Alternatively it will break the trendline and grow exponentially until the release of the roadmap!

The ADA team describes the project as a “Third Generation Cryptocurrency” - hence better and more technologically advanced than any of its competitors. With a potential scalability of over 1 billion users due to its new proof of stake algorithm - without the huge energy consumption that other projects have.

On the event they also announced a new framework called “K Framework” which allows developers to write smart contracts in any programming language of their choice.

Allowing only one programming language has always been a big downside for new and old projects, as it drastically narrows down the amount of developers who can write for them. This is great news for ADA as it will be able to attract a much wider variety of developers to write smart contracts on the platform, regardless of their programming background.

Additionally, ADA announced the Cardano Foundation, which is a Swiss based body who acts as a guardian for the project and information provider for the community and will closely work with governments to help shape regulations.

Finally they released a date in which they will announce their road map - it will be very interesting to see what is planned for their future.

In my opinion the dump was not caused from what was said at the launch - as most of the community and investors were extremely happy with the outcome of it. However this big sell off was implemented by long time holders who bought ADA during the ICO for nothing - allowing them to make a profit with the pump caused by the news around the launch.

Now ADA is recovering from the dump with a stable price between 450 and 480 satoshi; given the analysis before the 21st of October we will know if it either brakes positive (option A) with a healthy and slow growth or if its break negative (option B) going below the strongest support level where it will stabilize around 450-425 satoshi.

I initially set a buy order for 505 as there was a strong support around that plus an additional order at 500 in case it broke the support. As soon as it fulfilled my orders and broke the lowest support it went all the way down to 450 (11% decrease).

Now I will wait for either Option A or Option B to know where I will place my next order!

ADA WEEKLY ANALYSIS

1-8 DECEMBER

ANYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

WHAT HAPPENED THE WEEK BEFORE?

WHAT HAPPENED THE WEEK BEFORE?

WHAT HAPPENED THE WEEK BEFORE?

WHAT HAPPENED THE WEEK BEFORE?

WHAT HAPPENED THE WEEK BEFORE?